Gold, Crude Oil Prices Eyeing FOMC and ECB Minutes, Jackson Hole

2019-08-19 13:45    Ilya-Spivak
Gold, Crude Oil Prices Eyeing FOMC and ECB Minutes, Jackson Hole Expert Analysis 1

Crude Oil, Gold price performance chart created using TradingView

GOLD & CRUDE OIL TALKING POINTS:
  • Gold price technical positioning hints at pullback brewing ahead
  • Crude oil prices idling near $55/bbl as risk trends await catalyst
  • FOMC and ECB meeting minutes, Jackson Hole in the spotlight

A risk-on mood broadly prevailed across global financial markets Friday. Cycle-sensitive crude oil prices edged higher alongside stocks. Treasury bond yields also rose as capital moved away from haven assets, undermining the appeal of non-interest-bearing alternatives and weighing on gold. The anti-risk US Dollar and Japanese Yen likewise declined.

From here, a slow start to an otherwise action-packed week might see key assets idling as traders withhold conviction before forthcoming event risk. Minutes from July’s FOMC and ECB meetings as well as the Fed’s Economic Policy Symposium due to kick off Thursday in Jackson Hole, Wyoming will probably take top billing. Political turmoil in Italy also warrants attention.

With slowing global growth top-of-mind for investors, scope for incoming monetary stimulus expansion is a critical consideration. The ECB is widely expected to ease next month, but its preferred delivery strategy is unclear. As for the Fed, the markets are priced for 75bps in additional rate cuts before year-end. Such robust hopes may be disappointed by a more reserved central bank, souring risk appetite anew.

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GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Gold prices are treading water below the monthly swing high at 1535.03. Negative RSI divergence warns of ebbing upside momentum, hinting that a pullback might be in the cards. A break below initial support at 1480.00 exposes the 1437.70-52.95 zone. Alternatively, a push above resistance aims for a weekly chart inflection level at 1563.00.

Gold, Crude Oil Prices Eyeing FOMC and ECB Minutes, Jackson Hole Expert Analysis 2

Gold price chart created using TradingView

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Crude oil prices continue to mark time near the 54.72-56.09 congestion area. Resistance defining the near-term bearish bias is now at 58.48, with a daily close above that targeting the 60.04-84 zone next. Critical support is clustered around the $50/bbl figure. Breaking below that sets the stage for a descent to challenge three-year lows just above the $42/bbl mark.

Gold, Crude Oil Prices Eyeing FOMC and ECB Minutes, Jackson Hole Expert Analysis 3

Crude oil price chart created using TradingView

COMMODITY TRADING RESOURCES
  • See our guide to learn about the long-term forces driving crude oil prices
  • Having trouble with your strategy? Here’s the #1 mistake that traders make
  • Join a free webinar and have your commodity market questions answered

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact Ilya, use the comments section below or @IlyaSpivak on Twitter


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